Question
How might the IRA credit expiration reshape Tesla's Q3-Q4 demand, and where could pricing support become less effective?
Context
Why this mattered
A case-study model using mock and assumption-based inputs to explore a Q3-Q4 transition after the $7,500 credit expiration. Model outputs are scenarios, not observed Tesla results.
Approach
From ambiguity to evidence
Defined assumption-based demand, pull-forward, pricing, and elasticity inputs.
Ran Monte Carlo trials across Q3-Q4 scenarios.
Compared pricing-support scenarios while separating model outputs from observed facts.
Findings
What the analysis surfaced
The model illustrates how pull-forward can shift demand between adjacent periods.
Pricing support can mitigate a modeled decline, but its effect depends on elasticity assumptions.
Because inputs are assumption-based, the results are scenarios rather than reported Tesla performance.
Contribution
What I owned
Strategy analyst; built the scenario framing, Monte Carlo model, and recommendation narrative.